Risk Assessment Window: COVID-19 Trend for the next 9-months

The talk of going back to work has been heating up in the last three months prior to August 2021. While we are all hoping to get back on track to pre-pandemic time, it is prudent to observe first what will happen for the rest of the year before declaring any form of normalcy in the get-back-to work order.

So the timeframe from now to the First Quarter of 2022 is the acid test. It will show where we are in this COVID19 situation. It looks like many Canadians are still in the category of most at risk despite having been vaccinated, so they’d probably like to see that there will be no resurgence of the pandemic in the coming winter months like what happened in the winter months of 2020 (see below). 

As an ordinary observer, I can say that there is a strong indication new COVID cases will continuously ramp up, while the country approaches the 2021 winter months, similar to the 2020 scenario. The month/year statistics comparison between 2020 and 2021, starting in August, begins to trace a similar trendline, with this year’s stats on cases showing greater than last year by a substantial lot. This is true for all the Canadian provinces with big cities. 

The government and almost everyone I spoke with is talking about a Delta variant-driven fourth wave scenario and a Lambda-driven one after that! There is a reasonable probability that another couple of big spikes will occur before the end of the year and the onset of next year. We are not out of the woods yet. 

I wonder, what kind of reprieve to this punishment do we foresee?

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When will this calamity end? It’s been more than a year and a half, and the whole world still doesn’t know where this virus initially came from. Without knowing the origin of transfer and distribution, do we think the government and our health agencies can successfully clamp down on this virus and finally come up with the complete cure?

As early as August 23, 2021, Doctors say, “We are in big trouble!” and the continuing trend affirms their worst fear. 

About the Author

Rufran C. Frago is the Founder of PM Solution Pro, a Calgary consultingproduct, and training services firm focusing on project and business management solutions. He is passionate providing advice, mentorship, education and training through consultation, collaboration, and what he uniquely calls, student-led training.


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